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Ext. 114
CHRISTMAS SHOPPING 2000: THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD
----America's Research Group's Annual Holiday Consumer Survey Predicts
A Mere 3.8% Increase In Sales Over Last Year's Record High Of 6.8%
----
New York, New York, November 16, 2000
Rising gas and heating oil prices and a Presidential election that
is still unresolved will affect holiday spending in 2000, according
to a newly-released survey on consumer's Christmas shopping plans.
Released by America's Research Group (ARG), the survey projects
Christmas sales gains of only 3.8% this year versus a record high
of 6.8% last year. ARG has conducted this Christmas consumer survey
annually for the past six years and has accurately predicted the
yearly sales increases in each of those six years. C. Britt Beemer,
founder and CEO of ARG said: "Our survey is a bit late this
year because last week, 56% of the consumers we spoke to were so
captivated by the strange outcome of the Presidential race that
they were unable to talk about their Christmas shopping plans during
this historical period. The good news is Americans are viewing the
Christmas season with some optimism. But there are more cautionary
signs out this year than we've seen in many previous seasons."
- 20% of the more than 1000 consumers surveyed said they would
spend over $1,000 on Christmas gifts
- 32.7% said they would be out there fighting traffic and crowds
in the stores the day after Thanksgiving
- 27% planned to buy Christmas gifts for more than 10 people (according
to ARG, more than 25% is considered excellent)
- 38.8% feel the quality of merchandise being offered in stores
has improved
- 81.9% of households believe Christmas and the activities surrounding
the holiday season are still as important as it was 3-to-5 years
ago
- 77.2% still enjoy the Christmas shopping experience
The bad news is a combination of dismal third quarter reporting
and fourth quarter sales projections from retailers. Consumers have
been feeling the pinch, cutting back on their spending plans:
- Only the big discounters such as Kmart, Wal-Mart and Target
will see healthy sales this Christmas (31.6% said they will spend
more of their holiday dollars in these retail outlets). However,
other major retailers are going to have a tougher time: 24.9%
said they will spend less in national department stores (JCPenney,
Sears), 32.9% will spend less in major department stores (Macy's),
30.8% estimate they will spend less in membership warehouse clubs,
30.4% will spend less through catalogs, and 30.2% will make fewer
purchases via TV shopping programs
- Internet purchases will remain flat this year or about same
as last year with only 20% saying they will purchase less
- 41% said they will pay for their holiday purchases with cash
(using credit cards encourages higher purchases)
- Of those planning vacations during the holiday, 79.4% will opt
for driving over flying (in previous years, 40% traveled by plane,
60% by car). Only 13.4% will fly, underscoring consumers concern
over gas prices, and the perception that the airlines will not
be offering discounted fares during this holiday season
- Americans have still not lost their senses. If given $1,000
as a Christmas present 33.l% (or 1/3) said they would use the
money to pay bills
- 55.4% fully expect stores to be short-staffed and checkout lines
to be long, which will make the holiday shopping experience less
pleasant this year
- Price ranges for gifts will decline in 2000 with the most popular
price range for gifts being $26-$35 this year over last year's
record high of $36-$50, or 10-15% decline
- Significantly - consumers plan to spend less on themselves this
year with only 36.4% planning to purchase something nice for themselves-a
50% decline (66%) from previous years
- 23.8% feel they will spend less on holiday gifts because of
concerns about the increase cost of gas and heating oil prices
(this concern has never reached higher than 12% in previous consumer
surveys). Previous consumer issues that rated higher levels of
concern have included bad economic news and overseas military
conflicts
"The roller coaster ride of Wall Street, a decline in spending
on apparel, the energy crisis, and now the uncertainty over the
Presidential election has made consumers nervous," explains
Beemer. "Shoppers traditionally treat themselves to something
nice when they do their holiday shopping, and our consumers are
telling us this year they will be spending less on themselves. Because
more people plan on paying for their holiday purchases with cash,
this means they will be spending less than they normally would with
credit cards." Only the big discounters look to be the sure
winners with gift buyers this year. "While the Internet won't
lose business, no growth means continued bad news for those who
thought the Internet would be the next great marketplace. If snow
and inclement weather come early this year, retailers had better
offer discounts and sales," advises Beemer. "Otherwise
this Christmas for them will be a very slippery slope."
The ARG Christmas Survey results as well as previous years' comparative
totals are available upon request.
C. Britt Beemer is available for interviews.
For more information Contact America's Research Group.
America's Research Group, Ltd. (ARG), is a full service consumer
behavior survey research company with more than 20 years experience.
ARG has interviewed more than 4 million consumers. Utilizing both
quantitative and qualitative research, the firm works with clients
to develop practical and successful marketing strategies for pace-setting
companies in the fields of home furnishings, appliance and electronics
retailing, banking and finance, automobile dealers, department stores,
specialty and mass merchants. Clients include Sealy Mattress, Barnes
& Noble, AT&T Wireless, Eckerd Drugs, Broyhill Furniture,
Thomasville Furniture, American Eagle Outfitters and many others.
ARG claims a plus or minus 3.8% accuracy.
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