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RETAIL GURU PROJECTS A 3.2% DECLINE IN RETAIL
SALES THIS CHRISTMAS
--Annual America�s Research Group Survey Also Shows America is Going Home This Thanksgiving Like Never Before
Fear about the future of the American war with Afghanistan, terrorism, and a recessionary economy will insure that this holiday season will be the biggest no-profit Christmas for retailers in a decade, predicts Britt Beemer, founder and chairman of America�s Research Group. Beemer is projecting a 3.2% drop in holiday sales this season, on a comparative store basis. In the research firm�s annual survey of consumer�s holiday shopping plans, Beemer also noted that nearly 80% of Americans plan to be with family this Thanksgiving (normally that figure is 68.1%), and 70% of traveling Americans (one in three) say they will be going home by car rather than plane.
�This all-important retail shopping season had too many obstacles,� say Beemer, who has predicted the last seven selling seasons within a .5% level. �If retailers don�t win the shopping wars on Thanksgiving weekend, they can write off the entire Christmas season,� he warns. Luxury retailers will most likely suffer the most. This Christmas families are buying for the same number of people, but expect to spend $759.66 compared to $828.17 last year. There is a 20% decline at the upper end of families planning to spend over $1,000 (14.3%, down from 18.0%). The survey of more than 1,000 consumers, was conducted by America�s Research Group over a two-day period (October 27 and 28), with an error factor of plus/minus 4.3%. Other factors affecting holiday retail sales include:
- Concerns about the future was a huge contributing factor by 15.3% (up considerably from last year�s 6.5%), while fear of losing jobs also rose dramatically to 14.2% (another big jump from 0.4% in 2000)
- More shoppers (41.3%, up from 25.4%) plan to give gift certificates this Christmas and 31.4% plan to give cash versus 23.4% last Christmas�the reason cited was the promise of bigger savings during after-Christmas sales for the recipients
- Again major discounters such as Wal-Mart, Kmart and Target will see more shoppers than ever with 53.1% planning to shop these stores (up from 31.6% last year)
- On-line shopping will increase from 14.4% to 18.4% with families expecting to spend $246.15 in 2001, compared to $200.32 last season
- Less shopping will be done at enclosed malls this year with 30.6% saying less and only 17.7% saying more, a ratio of 2 to 1 on the negative side. A year ago, 22.1% said less and 18.1 said more which had a very narrow range. Additionally 21.2 % say they will avoid malls if possible due to the recent Anthrax scare
- Retailers need to be aware that 61.9% of Americans intend to shop at stores giving a portion of their profits to victims of the September 11th attacks
- Over half of the consumers surveyed said they will be looking for �Made in America� products this Christmas
- Giving $20 or more to charity will rise from 35.9% to 42.6%
- Consumers expect to complete their holiday shopping much earlier this year with 60% intending to finish by December 15th, compared to 47.3% last year
- Churches/synagogues will be more crowded with 51.2% saying they will attend more religious services this Christmas
- 20.5% say they will be going to fewer Christmas parties this year
�Any retailer waiting to advertise a 50% off sale a week before Christmas will find there will be few shoppers at their retail funeral,� declares Beemer.
| Top 7 Retail Categories in 2001:
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Top 7 Retail Categories in 2000:
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| Toys |
36.6% |
Toys |
34.5% |
| Children�s clothes |
28.5% |
Children�s clothes |
23.0% |
| Men�s clothes |
23.4% |
Women�s clothes |
21.6% |
| Jewelry |
21.9% |
Sporting Goods |
21.1% |
| Women�s clothes |
20.4% |
Video Games |
18.7% |
| Sporting goods |
16.1% |
Men's Clothes |
17.1% |
| Perfume/cologne |
16.1% |
Jewelry |
16.3% |
| TOP SEVEN TOYS 2001:
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TOP SEVEN TOYS 2000:
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| Toy cars and trucks |
28.2% |
Nintendo/Play Station |
20.9% |
| Nintendo/Play Station |
25.2% |
Computer games |
23.0% |
| Barbie dolls |
22.2% |
Barbie dolls |
20.9% |
| Bicycle |
19.7% |
Doll babies |
18.8% |
| Hand-held games |
15.0% |
Action figures |
17.7% |
| Board games |
13.7% |
Toy cars and trucks |
16.6% |
| Doll babies |
13.2% |
Board games |
11.2% |
Britt Beemer is available for interview.Selected questions from the survey are available upon resquest.
America�s Research Group, Ltd. (ARG), is a full service consumer behavior survey research company with more than 22 years experience. ARG has interviewed more than 4 million consumers. Utilizing both quantitative and qualitative research, the firm works with clients to develop practical and successful marketing strategies for pace-setting companies in the fields of home furnishings, appliance and electronics retailing, banking and finance, automobile dealers, department stores, specialty and mass merchants. Clients include Sealy Mattress, Kohl�s Department Stores, IKEA, Barnes & Noble, AT&T; Wireless, Eckerd Drugs, Broyhill Furniture, Thomasville Furniture, American Eagle Outfitters and many others.
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